Fargo Rate Explained: Ratings, Odds and Robustness
A Fargo Rate is a number that predicts how often you'll win a game against anyone else who has one. The key fact: a 100-point gap means the higher-rated player wins about twice as many games as the lower-rated one. A 600 playing a 500 should win about two racks for every one they lose, and the same goes for a 450 against a 350.
FargoRate's own guide puts most league and tournament players between 200 and 700, with professionals generally between 700 and 800, and a 500 close to the middle of everyone it rates. Below: how the ratings are calculated, what each level looks like at the table, what robustness and starter ratings mean, how races are set from a rating gap, and how to get a number of your own.
How FargoRate works
Pool has no stopwatch or tape measure, so skill has to be measured the way chess measures it: by who beats whom. FargoRate collects game-by-game results from leagues and tournaments and calculates the set of ratings that best predicts every recorded game among every player. Statisticians call these maximum likelihood ratings. The idea comes from the Elo system used in chess.
A few details that matter in practice:
- It's one scale everywhere. FargoRate's example is that a 620 means the same thing in Halifax, in Christchurch and in Phoenix. A local league connects to the rest of the world as soon as a few of its players play rated events outside it.
- The whole database is re-optimized every day at 6am GMT, using everyone's games at once rather than adjusting one match at a time. FargoRate's blog says this global method has run since late 2014.
- Only 8-ball, 9-ball and 10-ball games on 7-foot or 9-foot tables count.
- Recent games count more. On FargoRate's blog, a three-year-old game counts half as much as a current one and a six-year-old game a quarter.
- Every game affects both players' ratings, which is why old games aren't simply deleted: they may be the main data behind an opponent's number.
Ratings are relative, so you don't need to play strong players to get an accurate one. FargoRate's example: a new player who wins 2 out of 3 games against a 350, over enough games, is playing like a 450.
The 100-point rule: rating gaps and win odds
FargoRate describes its scale as logarithmic, like the Richter scale. Each 100 points doubles the ratio of games won. The formula on FargoRate's blog is: win ratio = 2 to the power of (rating difference / 100). The ratios in the table are FargoRate's; the percentages are that formula turned into a per-game chance.
| Rating gap | Game win ratio (stronger : weaker) | Stronger player's chance per game | Example |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 : 1 | 50% | 600 vs 600 |
| 34 | 5 : 4 | about 56% | 564 vs 530 |
| 50 | 7 : 5 | about 59% | 575 vs 525 |
| 100 | 2 : 1 | about 67% | 400 vs 300 |
| 200 | 4 : 1 | 80% | 650 vs 450 |
| 300 | 8 : 1 | about 89% | 700 vs 400 |
| 400 | 16 : 1 | about 94% | 750 vs 350 |
The rule works the same anywhere on the scale. 550 vs 650 is the same matchup, in odds, as 250 vs 350. And small gaps matter more than they look: over ten games, FargoRate's blog expects a 575 to win 5.9 and a 525 to win 4.1. In a short race to 3 that's close to a coin flip; in a race to 9 the 575 is a clear favorite.
What Fargo ratings mean at the table
Ratings are defined by results, but FargoRate publishes a rough description of each level. Ours below is a paraphrase of that official ladder.
| Rating | What it looks like |
|---|---|
| 800 | Top world-class player. FargoRate says fewer than 20 players worldwide are above 800. |
| 700 | Top regional player in the US, a threat to run six racks in a row when the break is working, and world-class level for women. About 300 players in the US are at this level. |
| 600 | Has run three racks in a row several times and maybe four once or twice. Straight pool high run of 50 to 60. Around 30 players per million people. |
| 500 | A good local league player. Runs out on the first visit in about 5% of games. Close to the median of everyone FargoRate rates. |
| 400 | Runs out on the first visit in about 1% of games, once or twice a league season. |
| 300 | A common level for league players. May or may not have run a table. |
| 200 | Beginner with some coordination; most likely has never run an 8-ball rack. |
| 100 | Beginner, still working on basic coordination. |
So what is a good Fargo rating? Crossing 500 puts you at about the middle of all rated players, and most people who play leagues and tournaments sit between 200 and 700. A 600 is a strong player in most towns, and a 700 is near the top of a region. Professionals generally rate between 700 and 800. There's no top or bottom to the scale: a holiday-party crowd, by FargoRate's own example, would include many players between 50 and 200.
FargoRate's FAQ also makes the point that nearly every 485 wants to be a 500 and nearly every 685 wants to be a 700. Players care about the round numbers.
Robustness and starter ratings
Robustness is how FargoRate shows how much data stands behind a rating. For now it's simply the number of games that count toward it. At 200 games a rating is considered established. FargoRate says it may later factor in how recent the games are and whether the opponents had established ratings, which is why the number isn't just called games played.
Below 200 games, the number you see may be blended with a starter rating. A starter rating is a guess based on local or prior knowledge (what a league operator or event already knows about you). FargoRate says the starter isn't part of the core rating system: it's a stand-in until real results take over. The blend leans on your actual results more with every game, and the starter is ignored entirely once you reach 200 games.
FargoRate's own example: a player whose results over 50 games say 580, with a starter rating of 540, shows a preliminary 550. The starter still carries most of the weight that early. By 200 games it carries none.
For its 2016 BCAPL National Championships, CSI set starter ratings from the old CSI classifications, using the average established rating of players in each class:
| Old CSI classification | Men's starter | Women's starter |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Master | 710 | 675 |
| Master | 675 | 600 |
| Advanced | 625 | 525 |
| Open | 525 | 425 |
| Leisure | 400 | 300 |
That table is a 2016 starting point, not a conversion chart. CSI's own article notes that about half of the Open men it started at 525 really play higher and half lower; the games sort them out.
How your rating moves
Your rating rises when you win more games than your rating predicts against the players you actually faced, and falls when you win fewer. Losing 7 to 3 to a player 150 points above you is close to the expected result, so it barely moves anything. Losing 7 to 3 to someone 150 points below you does.
That has a few consequences people get wrong:
- Playing stronger opponents doesn't hurt you. The system expects you to lose more of those games.
- Every game counts, not just matches. A hill-hill loss and a 7 to 0 loss are different data.
- One great weekend doesn't make you a 600. With hundreds of games behind a rating, one event moves it a little, and old games fade slowly rather than dropping off.
- Ratings update daily, but the results have to be reported first. If your league or tournament hasn't entered scores yet, your rating hasn't seen them.
For the practice side of climbing, see how to get better at pool and our practice drills.
Fair races from a rating gap
Rating players and handicapping them are separate things, but the second follows from the first. The simplest handicap is a race where each player needs a different number of games. FargoRate publishes a table for the case where the stronger player goes to 9:
| Rating difference | Stronger player races to | Weaker player races to |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 9 | 8 |
| 36 | 9 | 7 |
| 58 | 9 | 6 |
| 85 | 9 | 5 |
| 117 | 9 | 4 |
| 158 | 9 | 3 |
| 217 | 9 | 2 |
| 317 | 9 | 1 |
A 100-point gap falls between the 85 and 117 rows, so a fair race is roughly 9 to 4 or 9 to 5. Note what this says about an even race to 7 between a 580 and a 480: the 480 is a clear underdog, which is why handicapped events use rating-based races.
For other race lengths, FargoRate's Fair Match tool at fairmatch.fargorate.com looks up two players and suggests races. One tournament player's write-up of a 575-and-under event describes the tool's Hot, Medium and Mild columns, with Hot tilting the race toward the lower-rated player and Mild toward the higher-rated one; the tournament director picks the column.
Leagues use the same math differently. The BCA Pool League turns each team's player ratings into handicap points per round with CSI's league calculator; how pool leagues work and APA vs BCA explain those formats.
How to get a Fargo rating and look it up
You can't self-report a Fargo rating. It comes from games entered by a league or tournament that reports to FargoRate. The common routes:
- Join a BCA Pool League or USA Pool League team. CSI gives its leagues FargoRate's league software and FargoRate-based handicaps; ask your league operator whether your games are being reported.
- Enter local tournaments that report results to FargoRate. Ask the room or tournament director before you enter.
- Play enough. You'll get a number early, but it isn't established until 200 games.
To look yourself up, use the search on fargorate.com or the free FargoRate app, which shows your rating, robustness and player card and lets you search other players by name. A paid subscription or league membership adds full match history and opponent history.
If you play only APA, you have an APA skill level instead, which is a separate handicap system built from your APA scoresheets. Forum charts that convert APA levels to Fargo numbers disagree with each other; our APA skill levels guide explains the APA side. If you have no rating at all and want a rough idea, Dr. Dave Alciatore's FargoRate page points to playing-ability tests (the Billiard University exams and his runout drill) as a way to estimate your level.
Can you sandbag a Fargo rating?
FargoRate's answer is that no rating system is immune but this one is hard to game. Its reasons, from its FAQ:
- Every game against every opponent counts, so a few dumped games get diluted by everything else.
- Losing on purpose costs money. Entering a double-elimination tournament to lose two matches costs the entry fee, and three dumped tournaments can be undone by one good event where you play six or eight matches.
- The formula is open. Older secret systems that leaned on inning counts invited players to bunt balls around to pad innings while still winning.
FargoRate adds that after years of use, most players are trying to raise their number, not hide it.
Where FargoRate came from
Elo-type ratings reached pool in the 1990s. Ron Shepard, a scientist at Argonne National Laboratory, used one for 8-ball players in the Argonne Pool League, and Bob Jewett used one for the National Pool League's 9-ball rankings around San Francisco. Mike Page described a global optimization of Elo-type ratings in a 2002 Billiards Digest article, "Sizing up with the Pros." Fargo ratings were first used, before the global optimization, at Fargo Billiards and Gastropub in Fargo, North Dakota, which Page has run since 2008; he had spent 18 years as a chemistry professor at North Dakota State University. FargoRate's other founder, Steve Ernst, is a former Microsoft senior software developer.
Sources
- FargoRate: official site and FAQ
- FargoRate blog: a look behind the curtain
- CSI: FargoRate starter ratings explained
- CSI: FargoRate league handicap calculator explained
- FargoRate app (App Store listing)
- Dr. Dave Alciatore: FargoRate FAQ
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What is a good Fargo rating?
A 500 is a good local league player and close to the median of everyone FargoRate rates. Most league and tournament players are between 200 and 700, a 600 has run three racks in a row several times, 700 is a top regional player, and professionals generally rate 700 to 800.
What does a 100-point Fargo difference mean?
The higher-rated player is expected to win about twice as many games, a 2 to 1 ratio, or about 67% of games. A 200-point gap is 4 to 1 and a 300-point gap is 8 to 1.
How do I get a Fargo rating?
Play in leagues or tournaments that report results to FargoRate, such as CSI's BCA Pool League and USA Pool League. You can't self-report. Look yourself up free at fargorate.com or in the FargoRate app.
How many games until my Fargo rating is accurate?
FargoRate considers a rating established at a robustness of 200, which for now means 200 games. Below that, the number may be blended with a starter rating, which is ignored once you reach 200.
What is robustness in FargoRate?
Robustness measures how reliable a rating is. Currently it is the number of games that contribute to it. FargoRate may later include how recent those games are and whether the opponents were established.
Does losing to better players lower my Fargo rating?
Only if you lose more than your rating predicts. The system expects you to lose more games to stronger players, so a normal result against a much better opponent barely moves your number.
How often does FargoRate update?
FargoRate re-optimizes all ratings every day at 6am GMT, once results have been entered by the league or tournament.
Does the APA use Fargo ratings?
Not for its handicaps. The APA uses its own skill levels under its Equalizer handicap system. FargoRate is used by CSI's BCA Pool League and USA Pool League and by tournaments that report their results to FargoRate.
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